In recent intense matches, my score has climbed to 8,000 points, but I’ve also almost run out of hidden points. As a result, I’ve decided to slow down the pace for a while and organize information about the new cards.
The purpose of this article is not to compare the strengths and weaknesses of the genres, but rather, due to the greater prevalence of randomized and discovered cards in the new cards, I wanted to provide a detailed rundown of the effects of certain cards.
(If I were to categorize this article, it would be closer to tavern probabilism than conventional gameplay)
[Tavern Probability] Calculation of some common probabilities
Before we dive in, let’s review some basic conclusions:
Zero, star distribution
Distribution of total number of attachments and spells in the pool by star level
For attachments, 1-star has the most cards, and the higher the star level, the fewer cards there are, with 6-star being about half of 1-star.
For spells, 4-star ranks have the most cards, decreasing in both directions.
In my early guide, the number of 5-star and 6-star markers differed from this chart, and then a group of friends shared a tweet from the designers that specifically pointed out the distribution of spells.
Discovery and randomization are equally affected by the card pool, so the probability of finding a specific 6-star token by discovering a specific race is essentially half the probability of finding a specific 1-star token. See Testing for specific arguments.
[Tavern Probability 2] The probability of discovery may be tied to the number of cards left in the pool
In all the threads I’ve seen on tavern probability calculations, the general attitude towards discovery is that the probability of discovering a 1-star is exactly the same as discovering a 6-star, and such an analysis tends to overestimate the ability to discover attachments.
However, when we get a random spell card, the mechanic is more inclined to give us 3- to 5-star spells than the intuitively large number of 1-star spells.
After presenting the generic conclusions, let’s look at some specific card analysis.
I. Unlimited potential
I usually use this card to discover spells, but to my surprise, I found Mother’s Eye multiple times when discovering 5 stars at 4-star, and it was shocking how efficiently I found cards.
Now let’s organize the 5-book spell pool and the 6-book spell pool:
five-book spell
six books of spells
Since I banned Demon and Undead two days ago, the probability of finding Mother’s Eye is 1-C(7,3)/C(8,3)=3/8=37.5%, which is about a small half of the probability of finding Dot of Gold, and even if Undead and Demon are both in, the probability of finding Mother’s Eye is 30%.
If both Undead and Demon are present, the probability of finding a specific two cards becomes 8/15=53.3%, so there is a large half probability of finding one of Dot Gold’s Touch, or Mother’s Eye.
Finding 6-star cards is even better; there are only 6 6-star spells, and there’s a 50/50 chance of finding Greater Clever Sphere, which isn’t bad even if there isn’t a Greater Clever Sphere of this card.
II. Vandal’s Blessing, boar players
Choosing a follower
I don’t know if you noticed in 12.4-12.5 that as long as you ban Boar, Vandal’s card finding must be three specific cards (Neutral, Beast, Pirate). This also means that in specific situations, we can use this card to find cards directionally, looking for pirates is kind of financial management, looking for the mutant beetle can take the beast reanimation (but with an extra taunt), and the brightest should be looking for the demon, +5 +5 and eat tavern. (But Unlimited Potential can’t find this demon by getting Vandal in five)
Familiarizing yourself with this card’s pool is necessary, as Infinite Potential has a 50/50 chance of finding Vandal when looking for a 6-book card.
Simply remembering the conclusions, even though this card will be very strong in finding cards with banning Boar, if you want to remember when you can find cards directionally, just focus on the races of the remaining cards with banning Boar: Beast, Fishman, Pirate, Demon Elemental, and Elemental.
Banning three cards from this will result in fully directed card finding.
The boar player will add some spell cards to the above as follows:
Choice Spells.
Since the cards dealt are affected by the pool, let’s simply map the spell situation to the follower pool we’re more used to:
Banner of the Alliance: only 5 cards in the pool, equivalent to 7 books of entourage cards
Gemstonespecial, Time Management: 9 cards each in the pool, equivalent to 5 follower card counts
4 to 6 spells have the same number of cards as attachments, so the star ratings for Path of the Ravens and Unlimited Potential remain the same.
Therefore, the spell that gets dealt the most should be Infinite Potential, but Infinite Potential is equivalent to the number of four attachments, and most Choice Attachments are at 3, so it’s still dealing more attachments.
III. The Road to Rare Tracks
The card’s ability to find cards is too inconsistent compared to the Choice and Spell pools mentioned above, so just how inconsistent is it, let’s take a brief look at the five and six book pools:
Gohonoike-1
Gohonoike-2
Roppongi pond
As you can see, there are 10 resident cards in the five-book pool alone, and there are a lot of race cards, with totals floating from 26 to 35.
The six-book pool is much cleaner than the five-book pool, with totals floating from 16 to 21, but it is only possible to randomize one, which is not as stable as the five-book.
If we are hoping to directional to find a specific five-book card, according to the best-case scenario estimate, the probability is about equal to 2/26 = 7%, not even a Cheng Cheng, can see that the stability of this card is really not work, and there are not many function cards/resource cards in it, and a lot of the time it’s really just two dollars, unlike Vandalandal that spell, in addition to Beast Choice basically can be used to use it, the unlimited potential of out of the Vandal and the card, then, the Vandal If you have unlimited potential for Vandal and this card, Vandal should be a higher priority (I’ve been looking for Copperbeard/Raven/Dakka with this card for the past two days and haven’t found any)
IV. The impostor’s ball of wisdom
The effect of the Great Clever Orb seems to have been modified compared to the very first version, so here’s a brief summary of what I’ve seen, written from memory, not sure if there will be any mistakes or omissions:
- Normal refresh, then tavern follower all sets holy shield and gets figure buff (I think it’s +4+4? Not much anyway)
- Normal refresh, then gold a follower.
- Normal refresh for the first 6 cards, then 7 followers for the last card.
- Normal refresh for the first 5 cards, then swipe two copies of some normal card in your lineup
- Swipe a specific follower x7
- Play 7 spells
- Swipe 7 copies of your partner
- Play 7 legendary cards
- Brush out 7** equipment cards (Copperbeard Ravenous Dakarai Little Yellow, etc.)
- Brush out the current lineup of most races
- Brush out copies of current lineups
Personally, I love this card, but I must also recognize its god-ghost duality. It’s kind of a waste of 5 bucks in a sense if you don’t swipe it well. However, with taverns basically either swiping or searching for specific cards at the moment, 5 bucks to the Great Clever Orb still feels like more bang for the buck than just searching for 5 down.
IV. Magnetic pools
Discover/randomize magnetic cards
Magnet Pool
Since find/random is also affected by the number of cards in the pool, the probability of finding a 6-book mechanic is even lower than 1/6 = 16.7%, and it’s simple to calculate the exact value (only considering the situation at 6-books since we’re focusing on 6-book magnets)
That means that 10 random magnets sends almost 1 6-book magnet on average.
However, if you can stuff 10 magnets into your hand, the odds are that you’ll also get a trifecta, and the probability of finding a specific six-book follower in a trifecta is 3/6 number of followers = 3/21~3/16 = 14.3%~18.8%, and you’ll get another 6-book magnet on average after finding it seven times or so.
Blindfold triggering Battle Cry seems to be a more promising route than stuffing Magnet in your hand, and the best case scenario is Gold Copperbeard, Gold Dakkale, and Gold Little Blindfold, with two Gold Discovery Magnets, for a total of 3x3x(2+2)x2=72 triggers, or 32 triggers if you switch to Normal Copperbeard and Normal Dakkale.
During the 12.4-12.5 period without Blindsight, I played mechanical 6-book mag maxed out at about 100+ (which translates to 50+ mags), and most of the time it seemed to be in the 70’s, so if the new version puts up a mechanical dacron lineup, the power of 6-book mags should still be substantial. (However, the more likely scenario for this kind of Sky Lake game is to end the game too quickly resulting in not raising it big enough to be enjoyable)
V. Battleships of Moon and Iron Destruction
This card’s settlement is overly specific, so I’ll mention it here.
The gold card effect gives two Magnetisms, and both gold and normal cards are upgraded by +3+3 per upgrade
Dakarai in conjunction with it will give two 3/3 Magnetisms first, then upgrade to 9/9
Dragons whose Battle Roar triggers an end of turn effect can also trigger Moon Iron’s boosting effect, which acts as a speed bump.
12.4-12.5 Max raised to 72/72, Gold Moon Iron Gold Dakarai gives 6 copies of 72/72 = 432 Attack and Blood, and could theoretically be raised in conjunction with End of Turn Dragon + Little Blindfold as well, but the thing is a placeholder, can only give a maximum of 10 copies, and the ones that do blow up are of much higher quality.
VI. Randomize a spell/find average quality of spells
In the preview I saw someone say that this card is expected to give points for 1 spell and 2 spells, so what is the reality?
The distribution of spells is shown in the figure, and to simplify the discussion, consider that all racial spells are in 4 books, that is, change the resident pool of 5 to 10, and leave the rest untouched, and the results of the calculations under this benchmark are shown in the figure
The probability of 1 spell + 2 spells coming out randomly is just over 20%, the probability of all 3 to 5 spells is close to 20%, and the probability of 6 spells is smaller but more than 1 and 2.
So counterintuitively, the average star rating given by the sign timer for spells is not that low.
VII. Malignant Scale Package
It always seems that the Shaping Spells cards in this version give quite a lot of economy cards, so this card looks like a 2-drop, but it may actually cost 1 or even less, so let’s sort it out:
Shaping the Spell Pool
The top five of these cards are the ones we want to search for, and the bottom four are garbage, so simply ask for the expectation, as follows
Shaping Spell Expectations, Formula 3*Number/Total
First is the Holy Shield, on average you have to play 4 Evil Scale packages to get a Holy Shield, and second is the topic of money, if you simply count all 4 money giving spells as one piece then on average they can be mitigated by 0.2 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.36 = 1.06, on average the card actually only costs one dollar instead of the two it seems to cost.
VIII. Battle cry pools and dead language pools
It’s good to wrap up with a discovery pool of these two cards, and since the pool is large, I won’t be calculating probability distributions or anything like that for the rest of the day.
Battle Cry Pool-1
Battle Cry Pool-2
It’s worth emphasizing that it’s not uncommon to see low-book warcalls, and it’s important to keep an eye on the racial pool when playing 4 warcalls to get Copperbeard, especially if there’s a Demon, which relates to when the Copperbeard will be opened up.
Dead Language Pool – 1
Dead Language Pool – 2
IX. At the end of the round
X. Conclusion
As you can see, this article is basically a new release notes like thing, but it seems like you rarely see anyone discussing the distribution of cards in the tavern, so presumably this article has an ecchi bit as well?
Anyway, I’m tired of writing this, and there’s not much more I can continue to write after a brief look, so I’ll stop here for now.